On the subject of the impending Energy Crisis.

[grokefish]

With Peak oil production having occurred 5 years ago now we are well on our way up shit creek without a paddle.
On the subject of the impending energy crisis.
I was just wondering how many people realize that this will be a reality relatively soon and what knowledge you have on the matter.
This is a potentially political minefield so can we avoid that and stick to data and what you are planning to do about it on a personal, community and National level.

For a a start I am pretty sure tropical fish keeping as a hobby is potentially or definitely under threat at least in colder countries

[racoll]

Not sure if much will change, as the rich will be still be able to buy fuel, and the poor won't.

Most people who own luxuries like aquariums probably don't fit in the poor category.

[MatsP]

Where is the data saying that Oil production peaked 5 years ago (or rather, where is the evidence that oil running out in short order).

The graph on this page appears to show that there isn't any huge difference in oil production for several years back and forwards of 5 years ago.
http://yearbook.enerdata.net/#/crude-oi ... ction.html

The level is slightly lower for 2009, but that's not because supply is running out, but because demand was lower (overall global energy consumption was 1.1% lower for 2009 than for 2008).

--
Mats

[grokefish]

Well Ok, I am assumeing you are saying 'The rich countries will be able to buy fuel, but the poor countries will not' but the rich will not be able to buy fuel if there isn't any though will they or if it takes for instance more energy to create that energy if you get me.

@Mats if the oil production has not gone up for several years then it has peaked, and to say oil supply (Remaining) is not running out is absurd, the point where discoveries of 'easy oil' were higher than production increase was a long time ago.
Really it has been running out since it was first tapped.

Relatively soon being the important factor here or are you thinking oil will last another 200,000 years?

[racoll]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought there was plenty of oil left in the ground, it is just that extracting it is becoming more and more expensive, and supply can't keep up with current demand (hence rising prices).

[grokefish]

Exacery, and with current technology only 40-50% of that oil may ever get extracted.

I am not prophesising the end of the world here but there will definately be a pretty tough transitional phase with power shortages and such.
Also as the whole of our economy is based on growth of that economy (because of the debt based nature of it) if that oil production does not grow pretty soon then the economy may not grow and cause serious problems with th extraction of that oil ending up with a bit of a paradox maybe, I'm no economist.

[racoll]

There'll certainly be oil, but it'll just be sold to the highest bidder ...

[grokefish]

Indeed.
Who will be the highest bidder do you think?

[MatsP]

So, my point is that oil production will continue at similar levels (or CAN continue at similar levels, should we be willing to pay the price).

For the average "one 100-200 liter tank", cost of keeping the aquarium is really small compared to keeping the house warm, cooking, washing, toasting bread, and other high energy consumption in the average household. And electrics is the least difficult power to replace with alternatives - wind, sun and water-based production. Obviously, keeping 9 tanks, most of which are bigger than 100 liter is a bit more expensive...

But the real difficult part will be making aero-planes, boats and cars run on something other than oil-based products. Not that it's terribly difficult to make the engines work on something else in itself. The difficulty is comming up with something that is reasonably dense in energy and works well for the engine as well. Hydrogen works quite well, but it's a lot more bulky than petrol for the same amount of energy - and it takes a huge amount of electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Ethanol and other "bio-fuels" are difficult because they compete with food production.

--
Mats

[grokefish]

So what you are saying Mats, is that you believe that if oil production is going to plateau for a while then the economy is going to stagnate along with it?

Not arguing with that, as I said I am no economist, but how will the debt be paid off?

I don't believe electricity generating sources are as easy to replace as you are suggesting though.

I like the idea though, I have always though micro generation is the key to this all.

[racoll]

Who will be the highest bidder do you think?

Well seeing as oil is sold to companies via other companies, then at a local level ("at the pumps"), your Fiesta driving student or single mum on benefits will suffer, while your Audi driving executive will probably absorb the price increase easily.

[MatsP]

So, I'm no economist either, but I don't believe the current economic crisis is related to oil-prices.

Higher oil-prices will put other energy production forms at a better (more level) competitiveness, compared to oil.

I've worked with computers for a very long time. Every now and again, people say "This technology A will be replaced by technology B, which will revoloutinize the market, and make technology A obsolete". So far, I've not seen it come true. What happens is that Technology A is improving, and technology B disappears because it costs too much to introduce a new, completely different, technology. Several years ago, all phones and the old 56K modem were going to be replaced with ISDN - that would give us two telephone lines and data transmission in one physical wire. What actually happened was that regular old style analog phones are still in use, but modems got replaced by ADSL. Now, ADSL essentially uses the same technology as the 56K modem, but multiplied up beyond what we can hear. This means we can still use our old analog phone, and have ADSL on the same wire. Evolution, not revolution.

When there is a sufficient demand, some new technology will replace oil. But I suspect before that happens, more cars will have smaller, more efficient petrol & diesel engines. Clearly, electric cars aren't ready yet (and very expensive).

And what I meant is that electricity is less difficult to make non-oil-burning than for example cars,boats and planes. The key difference is that the electricity production is sitting in one place, any fuel can be transported there - you just plug in a different type of generator into the network - be that a small or a large generator. Cars, boats and planes suffer from the problem of having to carry whatever the energy source is, with them... And for cars at least, the network to distribute an alternative fuel will add to the complications.

--
Mats

[grokefish]

Cool

[Dalek Tzet]

Oddly enough, I'm not worried about an energy crisis.

Part of that is you are seeing a push for less oil dependent tech right now. Fully electric cars have made their debut(admittedly they don't go very far yet) and hybrid engines need less gas. I don't know how long the oil will last, but I'm betting on improved tech before it goes.

As for the economy, I don't know about where you guys are at but I'm dealing with a pretty stagnant economy now and it didn't take oil to put it there.

The other part of why I'm not worried is because I'm taking personal steps to tackle my energy dependency. My boyfriend and I are researching and planning for an off-the-grid home. Believe it or not, it's not that hard to do. A combination of solar and wind energy can be used to run your home, if it's built with that in mind. I'm even looking into and in-ground home(think hobbit hole) witch takes less energy to heat and cool anyway. My car now gets about 30 mpg, but when I replace it I'm aiming much higher(by then I can get a used hybrid for less or the tech will have improved)

When you don't have a utility bill, and an efficient vehicle, rising gas prices become less of a problem. My personal goal is self sufficiency, but the tech can be applied to more urban living. You don't have to live in the sticks(like I want to) to rely less on oil. You just have to spend the time (and money) to get yourself there.

Hey, if the world does run out of(accessible) oil, energy conservation might become mandatory, rather than and oft ignored option.

[Bas Pels]

@ Solar energy

The production of the apparatus still requires very much energy, therefore in my eyes the technology is not ready for market. Yet, it might be in a few years.

Unfortunately governments (at least European ones) do not intent to wait much longer, and have started schemes to inprove the sale. But if one sais 'I want to be independent of oil' this would include also buying only oil-free products

And I think that is, now, nearly impossible.

[Jools]

while your Audi driving executive will probably absorb the price increase easily.

Being a German car driving executive, I would not say easily. From my perspective I use my much car less these days. For example, in 2006 I drove 26,400 miles in one year. I am luckily(?) if I will do 12,000 this year, however this will cost me about the same as 2006.

A more relevant topic might be how to run an off-the-grid fishroom.

Jools

[Jools]

I have always though micro generation is the key to this all.

Yup. When we can spend the average cost of a new kitchen on kit that once installed will create enough power to run our home for 20 years, then we're getting somewhere. Sustainably fielded private public transport is the other one nut we need to crack.

I don't see a descent into real crisis however, more a gradual slide (likely overegged) in stages.

Jools

[macvsog23]

I have fitted evacuated tube solar panels for hot water even during winter I get some hot water as they run on IR.
I only eat wild caught meat when possible
I use sustainable wood products
I buy cloths and as many goods as I can that are either manufactured locally or on a fair trade system.
I try to use reading or my hobby for entertainment ie no TV or energy consuming entertainment.
I recycled all my waste
I use recycled wood and metal products when possible.
I have reduced my electric consumption by fitting LED and Energy saving lamps and reducing my consumption of water ie I don’t wash.
Sadly All I do is negated rather quickly by my hobby.

[macvsog23]

Germany fought the last half of WW2 using a artificial Oil.

[Jools]

I don’t wash.

What, never?

Jools

[macvsog23]

I have adopted the birds way I roll in dust
I get wet in the fish house and as i am always telling my wife the water in my tanks is better than what comes out of the tap

[Viktor Jarikov]

I have adopted the birds way I roll in dust

If one were to rate which crisis will hit when, I'd vote for a major ecological one to hit the humankind right between the eyes the soonest, far sooner that it will run out of oil.

Scientists discover new oil fields every day and like 2/3 of Siberia have not been even looked at yet; also the tech extracting it improves exponentially too. And if that was not enough, there is enough oil in Canada right on the surface mixed in with dirt and sand to last a couple of centuries for the whole world - it is as accessible as one can imagine but it is energy-demanding to melt it out of the debris.

Let's not forget either that 2012 is bearing upon us... so we may know the answer pretty soon... or not...

[crkinney]

Well you guys have jumped on another of my pet pevves.
To make a long storie short the Energy crisis is BULLPOOP
JUST another way to raise prices of gas, oil, coal.

[Viktor Jarikov]

you are entitled to your opinions sure but thank God most people think/feel differently... otherwise, it would be neither energy crisis nor ecological one but WWIII that will end our misery...

[grokefish]

Well you guys have jumped on another of my pet pevves.
To make a long storie short the Energy crisis is BULLPOOP
JUST another way to raise prices of gas, oil, coal.

What makes you say that?
Please qualify, Energy production is my business, no one has told me this??????
Can I have some of this energy please.

On the point of taking the Arabs oil we all know its happening but that is not for this thread, I want it to be a positive info thread rather than a doom thread as stated avoid political stuff please.

2012 prophecies are bollocks, it may kick off in 2012 but that does not qualify the prophecy at all, it is just one of many end of the world prophecies that have NOT happened, if it does it is pure luck.

On a positive note this:

http://www.gizmag.com/new-dyes-solar-el ... uel/17467/

is very interesting indeed.

[Birger]

On the point of taking the Arabs oil we all know its happening but that is not for this thread, I want it to be a positive info thread rather than a doom thread as stated avoid political stuff please.

Yes keep things civil, statements(which I have removed) like that by macvsog23 are not welcome here...please keep in mind this is an international site and we most likely have members from these areas, all are welcome as all members have the same interest...catfish.

Birger

[PlecoCrazy]

If peak oil production occurred 5 years ago than my guess would be that peak demand was also in place about that time. As people use less they are going lower production so the peak is over but so what. If demand increased greatly and with higher prices I'm sure they'd be happy to produce some more and you'd hit a new peak. Is the "peak" 5 years ago really relevant to the amount of oil that is still left in the earth? Sounds like supply/demand to me. Seems like I hear more about them finding new oil that hasn't been tapped yet. Can't say I recall hearing of any well that has ran dry.

So is running out of oil the crisis your talking about? Or is the high price of energy the crisis your talking about? As long as oil prices remain high there will be greater demand for a lower cost alternatives and I believe we'll eventually get to the next technology bubble sooner than later. Think how much we've developed in the last 100 years. Like we can't figure out a solution to oil in the next 100. Its not going to take 200,000 years to figure it out, that's for sure.

IMO, part of the problem is regulation. Because I live in a housing addition we have a neighborhood association that pretty much comes up with what is allowed and not allowed in the community. I can't put solar or wind anything on my house because of these rules. They think it detracts the view of our cookie cut houses in some way. As long as there is one whiner on the board then its a no go. That's one of the hurdles I face trying to go green on a personal/local level.

[macvsog23]

On the point of taking the Arabs oil we all know its happening but that is not for this thread, I want it to be a positive info thread rather than a doom thread as stated avoid political stuff please.

Yes keep things civil, statements(which I have removed) like that by macvsog23 are not welcome here...please keep in mind this is an international site and we most likely have members from these areas, all are welcome as all members have the same interest...catfish.

Birger

My stament was to show the foolishness of the post claiming that we have no energy criss.
In fact i have no time for the rape of this planet by any one
Sadly no one saw what i was getting at.

[grokefish]

I did actually it was the post previous to yours I was referring to.

Two things:

Peak oil is when the most oil that can come out the ground per year/day/hour/min this has physical restraints, on a basic level how fast it can be pumped out the ground/how much is coming out,not when the market demand peaks that is another peak.

When these coincide, demand/production peak, that is when we are producing enough oil to satisfy our wasteful energy hungry lifestyles.

When Demand exceeds the physical ability to produce oil from the ground is when the energy crisis begins.

I personally believe that with the technology available today the physical ability to relieve the earth of it's oil has come and gone in the last 5 years, probably closer to 5 than 1.

The current 'Global' recession is masking the fact that this has occurred, when the global market picks up again I think we will see the first signs of energy shortages.

i.e Demand will outstrip supply.

Our current economy relies on continual growth, our oil production has not grown significantly for at least 5 years.

[macvsog23]

Thanks
Sadly the Arab people who would dispute the word Arab are and have always been exploited over Oil. I do not wish to start talking about this matter in this post but I felt that the denial of an energy crisis is a reflection of the "Grabbing" of recourses by people at the moment it is the West but this will change soon.
I am sure most people who subscribe to this site have an understanding of nature and a love for nature, this is why I found the stament that we have no energy crisis rather strange.

Should any one wish to debate or comment on my opinions please can they do so out side this post?